USDA Reduces 2022 U.S. Pork Production & Exports Projections

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its national pork production forecast for 2022 to 27.3 billion pounds, a roughly 64-million-pound reduction from last month’s projection and a 1.3% decline vs. 2021. The agency points to lower-than-expected February 2022 slaughter numbers, likely higher average carcass weights for 2022’s second half, and evidence of anticipated elevated disease risks as factors. For example, it says evidence of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) infections in aged wean-to-finish animals in December 2021, which was 42.64% of animals tested, may have further reduced February 2022 slaughter numbers. For third quarter 2022, U.S. pork production is expected to total 6.7 billion pounds, a 2.4% YOY increase. Fourth quarter 2022 production of 7.2 billion pounds is anticipated, which would be fractionally lower than the same quarter in 2021.

Record-Breaking Exports To Mexico

Although U.S. pork exports declined 16% YOY from 606 million pounds in January 2021 to 510 million pounds in January 2022, exports to Mexico for January 2022 were up considerably to a record 218 million pounds, a 49% YOY increase. The agency points to relatively high U.S. pork prices related to lower production and strong domestic pork demand as contributing to lower foreign interest in buying U.S. pork. It says low bone-in ham prices and Mexico’s preference for bone-in ham likely contributed to the increased exports to that country.

Based on generally weak demand in major pork world importing regions, the first-quarter U.S. pork export forecast was lowered to 1.58 billion pounds. The second-quarter forecast was lowered to 1.63 billion pounds, as higher U.S. pork prices are expected to sour foreign demand. Total U.S. pork exports for 2022 are projected to total 6.73 billion pounds, a 4.3% decrease from last year.

Exports To China Way Down

It’s also worth noting that according to the USDA’s list of the 10 largest world markets for U.S. pork, exports to China/Hong Kong fell 70% from 145 million pounds in January 2021 to 44 million pounds for January 2022.

Exports to Australia experienced a similar decline, dropping 71% YOY from 21 million pounds to 6 million pounds. Exports to Japan fell 21% YOY from 101 million pounds to 80 million pounds, and those to Canada declined 15% YOY from 45 million pounds to 38 million pounds.

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Source: USDA