Record-Setting Beef Export Levels Continue, Imports Also Reach Historical Highs
The U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service raised the forecast for 2022 commercial beef production by 195 million pounds, bringing the total forecast to 27.57 billion pounds, based on stronger-than-expected cattle slaughter totals this February. Despite the revised forecast, the USDA’s latest report finds beef production continued trending downward in early 2022. February’s cow slaughter totals were down 9.5% YOY from 2020 and down 12.4% from 2019. Cow slaughter numbers for February 2021, for which February 2022 represented a 12.2% YOY increase, aren’t the ideal comparison due to weather disruptions resulting in a significant impact on slaughter. The USDA expects fed cattle marketings will be slightly higher in the second half of 2022. On a more positive note, beef exports and imports experienced major gains in early 2022, including a new record for exports in January.
January Beef Exports 21% Above 5-Year Average
The U.S. exported 288 million pounds of beef in January 2022, setting a new January record. The beef export totals were 21% above the five-year average and 17% higher than January 2021. China, South Korea, and Taiwan were just a few of the major markets to increase beef shipments from the U.S. Beef exports to South Korea increased by 23 million pounds (a 38% YOY increase) to 82.9 million pounds, overtaking Japan as the top destination for U.S. beef. Exports to China were up 114.3%, more than doubling beef shipments from 2021. January beef exports to Mexico and Canada, on the other hand, were the lowest since 2004 and 2007, respectively.
Brazil Leads The Way For Beef Imports
The 352 million pounds of beef imported in January were 47% higher than the five-year average, according to the USDA report. Not only did this total set a record for the month of January, it marked the all-time fourth-largest monthly total for beef imports. Imports from Brazil were major reason for the January increase. Beef imports from Brazil totaled 99.9 million pounds (up 534.9% YOY) and accounted for two-thirds of the increase in total imports. Because Brazil falls under a tariff rate quota that’s shared among other countries that don’t have country-specific quotas, the USDA notes that Brazil might fill the quota for calendar year 2022 (143 million pounds) within the first quarter of the year. After filling the quota, beef imports from the quota group will be subject to tariffs at 26.4% of their value. The USDA Economic Research Service will be releasing an updated outlook report on April 15.
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Source: USDA